You gotta be kidding me!
It's May - the election is in November. I wouldn't hang any titles on Kerry yet.
This is Bush's election to lose - If he does lose it, then he'll get what he deserved, just like dear old dad.
If Bush tries to appease the left - just like dear old dad did, then he'll lose - just like dear old dad did. If he stays the course, then he'll weather this thing and remain in the White House.